US CONCERN OVER GROWING ISRAEL-CHINA RELATIONS

The Real Reason for Pompeo’s Quick Visit to Israel: It wasn’t to discuss Iran or Trump’s peace plan, issues on which the allies already see eye-to-eye

Israel Today
May 14, 2020

The Trump Administration stressed on Wednesday that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hadn’t flown halfway around the world to talk about Israel’s possible annexation of the Jordan Valley and other parts of its biblical heartland.

Nor was addressing the (temporarily?) waning Iranian threat at the top of the agenda when Pompeo sat first with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then with his new coalition partner, Benny Gantz.

According to Channel 12 News, the reason Trump and Pompeo felt the need for some face time with Netanyahu, even amid the ongoing coronavirus crisis, was their concern over growing Israel-China relations.

No Iran talk?

To be sure, Pompeo and Netanyahu did talk about Iran, its weakened position in neighboring Syria and its recent massive cyberattack on Israel’s water system.

But they could have just as easily done that over the phone. Israel and the US are very much on the same page concerning the Islamic Republic.

Face-to-face meetings like those held yesterday are only really necessary when the two sides hold divergent views on an issue. And with the risk of coronavirus infection still a very real concern, we expect our leaders to avoid frivolous, non-essential gatherings, just as they demand of us.

The Chinese menace

The Trump Administration is presently engaged in a new war of words with China. The US President has accused the Asian giant in no uncertain terms of concealing the coronavirus outbreak until it was too late. There are even renewed charges that the COVID-19 strain was cultivated at and released from (accidentally or otherwise) a Chinese laboratory.

Trump is presently making very public gestures bolstering the historical and religious Jewish claims to the Holy Land the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Balfour Declaration. Needless to say, he doesn’t then want to find Israel cozying up to America’s greatest rival during a time of mounting tension.

“The Secretary doesn’t have a problem with people having relationships with China, but the corona crisis sort of highlights the dangers of dealing with states that are not transparent, that don’t have fair trade practices,” said US officials cited by the Israeli media.

“The Chinese are not a reliable partner,” they added, as they cautioned Israel against allowing too much Chinese investment in the Jewish state. A great many of Israel’s largest corporations are already partly owned by Chinese investors. The threat there, said the Americans, is that “there is no such thing as a privately owned, independent company in China.”

At the end of the day, the US officials said that the relationship between America and Israel is strong and mature, enabling difficult discussions like this. “I think the message got through,” said one American diplomat.
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POMPEO'S GREEN, YELLOW AND RED LIGHTS FOR ISRAEL
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave Israel a green light to continue targeting Iranian forces in Syria; a yellow light to pursue annexation, albeit with an American request to postpone the move; and a bright red light when it comes to deals with China

By Prof. Abraham Ben-Zvi

Israel Hayom
May 14, 2020

At first glance, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's decision to make Israel his first foreign destination since the outbreak of the coronavirus, and on the eve of the next government's inauguration no less, raises more than a few questions. Is the battery of items on the American-Israeli docket so urgent that addressing them requires Pompeo's flash visit, even before the final bow on the coalition is tied?

The answer to these questions can be found in three contexts, which Pompeo himself slightly alluded to on the eve of his visit and throughout. From a visual perspective, it appears the secretary of state carried with him to Jerusalem a three-part message akin to a traffic light, whose colors alternate based on the specific matter at hand. The first message, green, signals full support and encouragement for Israeli military activity against Iranian forces and weapons systems in Syria. The goal: Exploit Tehran's growing weakness and expedite its withdrawal from Syria.

The second message, yellow, pertains to the timing of Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to launch legislative initiatives to apply Israeli sovereignty in the Jordan Valley and north Dead Sea region. In this context, Pompeo stressed that Israel was within its right to employ its own judgment on the matter, and therefore the message doesn't include an explicit American demand to postpone the move.

With that, it is a yellow light, as the administration would rather Israel coordinate this step to the fullest with Washington, and that it be implemented only after the joint American-Israeli mapping committee completes its work. This position, which favors controlled and measured progress on the path to sovereignty, reflects the concerns harbored by the administration, mainly within the intelligence community, over the regional ramifications of applying sovereignty within a two-month timeframe, along with the desire to tie all the plan's remaining loose ends together.

From the perspective of the White House, postponing annexation from early summer to the end of autumn 2020 comes with another considerable advantage. Israeli implementation with declared presidential support, on the eve of the US election on November 3, could be optimal from Trump's point of view in terms of spurring his evangelical base to go out and vote. The vast majority of this constituency unreservedly supports this aspect of Trump's deal of the century, as does a segment of American Jewry.

In light of his contentious battle with Democratic rival Joe Biden, Trump would prefer to hold this card in his pocket for the time being and avoid a situation where the desired effect of Israeli annexation has already waned by the time Americans head to the voting stations.

Finally, the red light. Although Israel's relationship with the US administration is tight-knit and light-years from former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's strained relations with former President Bill Clinton during the twilight of his second term, which forced him to torpedo Israel's Phalcon deal with China, this time around Pompeo drew an unambiguous bright red line in regards to China. New geo-strategic circumstances have emerged in the international sphere, necessitating stringent adherence to red lines as they pertain to future deals that could give the Chinese giant control of strategic and technological assets.

We are witnessing the dawn of a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. Israel's announcement Wednesday that it will reconsider China's role in a desalination project in the south indeed indicates Netanyahu's desire to mitigate any potential friction with the US on this highly-charged front.