THE INEXACT SCIENCE OF POLLING

by Bob Walsh

The mathematical part of polling they have down pretty good by now. Assuming the person hiring the poll wants an honest reading (not always the case) a professional poling organization can come up with a model that SHOULD give good results. Except for one thing. People lie.

The BREXIT polling had Brexit losing pretty close. It actually won by about 4-5%. The polling on the Scottish Referendum showed too close to all right up until the vote. It actually lost by 11%. Polling showed Boris Johnson in a squeaker two days ago, with him probably taking a modest drubbing. He actually won BIG TIME with the best majority in over 30 years. Polling said Trump would lose very badly to Hillary. He actually lost the popular vote very narrowly, but won convincingly in the electoral college.

The problem with polls is people lie to pollsters. They don't want to ADMIT to a stranger that they are voting for Boris, or Brexit, or Donald. But they do. They want to pretend they support Scottish independence, but they don't or they are afraid of the complications involved.

Polls can be nice. They might give you a handle on trends. Or they might be complete and utter bullshit. The number of people who show up at political events is possibly more indicative of what is going on. If you hold a campaign event and 27 people show up, most of who are homeless looking to get out of the cold and get a free meal, you have a problem. If so many people show up you have to set up big screen TV in the parking lot so people can see what is going on inside, you are probably making your point.

I said three years ago that I thought that Hillary would probably win, but that there would be a large, maybe even a HUGE, closet Trump vote and that if Hillary won it would not be a runaway victory. I was more right than wrong I believe.

The middle is leaning AGAINST impeachment (if the polls are to be believed). The wings are polarized. The Democrats will lose some votes from cowards in borderline districts who believe that voting against Trump will lose them their seat. Will they lose enough to kill it. Probably not. The bill of impeachment will probably be approved by the House and move on for trial in the senate. The senate is the jury. The vote will be historic.