By Howie Katz
Big Jolly Times
June 10, 2019
Recent articles in Big Jolly Times have complained about the failure of Republicans in the Texas legislature to meet the wants of grassroot Republicans. The articles and the comments that followed were highly critical of Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
If a Quinnipiac University poll taken this month is correct, then those grassroot Republicans have a lot more to worry about than the lack of right-to-life legislation.
The Quinnipiac University poll has been one of the more reliable polls among the different polls in this nation. The poll shows Biden ahead of Trump in Texas and only one point separating him and Elizabeth Warren. Here are the Texas results:
• Joe Biden 48 per cent vs President Trump on 44 per cent
• Elizabeth Warren 45 per cent vs President Trump on 46 per cent
• Bernie Sanders 44 percent vs President Trump on 47 per cent
• Beto O’Rourke 45 percent vs President Trump on 48 per cent
• Pete Buttigieg 44 per cent vs President Trump on 46 per cent
• Kamala Harris 43 per cent vs President Trump on 47 per cent
• Julian Castro 43 per cent vs President Trump on 46 per cent
Meanwhile, Beto O’Rourke, who gave Ted Cruz a run for his money, is tanking in his bid for the presidency. The Detroit Free Press reports that O’Rourke’s polling numbers among the Democratic presidential candidates has sunk to 2%. On Sunday, he said on ABC This Week that if elected president, he would order the Justice Department to pursue criminal charges against Trump.
The Quinnipiac University poll was taken before Trump’s triumphant visits to Britain and France. Trump got along so well with Queen Elizabeth that she told him she hoped he would return soon. And the President gave a powerful speech at the Normandy American Cemetery. Were the poll to be taken today, it might show Trump to be ahead of Biden, and by a wider margin of Warren and the rest of the Democratic pack.
I predict that unless Biden falls on his own sword, he will end up as the Democratic nominee. He’s already cut himself on the abortion issue. Biden has been a supporter of the Hyde Amendment which states that Medicaid will not pay for an abortion unless the woman’s life is in danger or the pregnancy resulted from rape or incest. But after intense criticism from his Democratic rivals, Biden caved in on Thursday and declared he can no longer support the amendment.
No matter who the Democratic nominee is, the race for President in Texas will be close. The Democrats in Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin outnumber the Republicans in those cities and the Republicans in the state’s rural counties may not be enough to keep Texas from becoming – God forbid – a Blue State.
And if Trump loses Texas next year, he will be only a one-term president.
It’s a given that even if Charlie Manson were the Democratic presidential candidate, California and New York would vote for him. But if the bedrock red state of Texas were to vote for the Democratic candidate in 2020, the key states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly follow suite.
Instead of fighting among themselves, Texas Republicans must put their differences aside and work like hell for a Trump victory. And if they want to keep the state red, Texas Republicans must fight hard for the women’s vote instead of – yes, I know this is heresy – the right-to-life vote, a vote they already have.
EDITOR’S NOTE: A BJT reader commented, “Can you tell where Quinnipiac was on the 2016 presidential polling?”
On October 19, 2016, Quinnipiac had Clinton ahead by seven points. Nevertheless, the Quinnipiac poll has been one of this country’s more reliable polls.
The reader was obviously dismissive of the Quinnipiac poll, but we should not dismiss the current poll just because the 2016 one was wrong.
However, Jerry Patterson commented that the 2016 poll was not wrong. Patterson, who was Texas Land Commissioner for 12 years, said: “Q-pac poll 2 weeks before the election showing Hillary beating Trump in the popular vote by 7 pts was accurate. On election day 2 weeks later she beat him by 2 pts. That means the gap closed by 5 pts in 2 weeks and after Comey dropped her in the grease. Their poll then, and their poll now was/is accurate.”
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