ISRAEL MAY BE FACING NEW WAVE OF TERRORISM

The defense establishment is at a crossroads reminiscent of the wave of lone terrorist attacks of 2015, but given the outline of the US peace plan and the backing the PA offers terrorists, the situation is far more volatile

By Yoav Limor

Israel Hayom
February 17, 2020

The series of terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria seen in recent days has a particularly volatile potential. It requires Israel to act resolutely but also prudently to prevent it from becoming a mass and fatal wave of terrorism.

The military has already taken immediate steps, such as reinforcing forces on the ground. While more soldiers on the ground also create more targets for terrorists, they also significantly increase the sense of security for the Israelis living in Judea and Samaria and are able to detect and disrupt terrorist activities.

In any case, most terrorists prefer targeting soldiers – "legitimate targets" than civilians, and Israel, too, prefers that security personnel buffer the attacks rather than see civilian casualties.

On top of the operations on the ground, the IDF, Israel Police and Shin Bet security agency much maintain close operational and intelligence coordination. This combined effort was able to quash the so-called "lone wolf intifada" in 2015, and the challenge now is similar: To use intelligence and technological tools to locate those planning terrorist attacks before they can execute their nefarious plans and stop them in their tracks.

Alongside these efforts, Israel is also required to avoid collective punishment measures against the Palestinian population that is not involved in terrorist activity. This is a critical issue, in which Israeli politicians often trip over their tongues, causing more harm than good. Collective punishment will not make the Palestinians denounce terrorism – it will only inspire support, which in turn could turn a few lone individuals into a massive wave of terrorism.

The line between the terrorist attacks of recent days is clear: They all stem from the grim atmosphere in the West Bank following the rollout of the Trump administration's "deal of the century," and the support Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is lending the "protest."

As before, the terrorists themselves are inspired by other terrorists. For the most part, these are troubled individuals who seek a way to become heroes in their own eyes and in the eyes of their surroundings.

Most also have no religious background or prior affiliation with any Palestinian terrorist group. But the current events are largely nationalistic, hence their volatile nature: The question of a Palestinian state is relevant to everyone, and a single act to drive the Palestinian public as a whole to support another intifada.

To avoid this, Israel is required to exercise caution and discretion, minimize Palestinian casualties, and ensure the successful cooperation with Palestinian security forces continues. Avoiding operational mistakes, such as the accidental killing of a Palestinian policeman during a riot in Jenin, is also crucial. When tensions threaten to boil over, any non-urgent operation, such as razing terrorists' home, should be avoided. It is imperative that allies who assist in preventing terrorist attacks that save Israeli lives not be harmed.

The Gaza border also remains highly unstable. The threat posed by incendiary balloons has been steadily increasing and requires a response, but politicians' statements about targeting the launch squad were unnecessary.

Palestinian casualties, especially if they are children, will only escalate the situation further. Israel may need to resort to previous effective tactics, such as firing near the balloon launch pads to avoiding hitting them directly yet still neutralize the threat.

In Gaza, like in Judea and Samaria, the immediate Israeli interest is to de-escalate the situation by avoiding unnecessary casualties and redundant statements. This is a complex mission but not an impossible one: Israel has already faced it several times in recent years, and with great success, and there is no reason it can't do it again.