A MAN WITH A PLAN

In less than four years, Russian President Vladimir Putin will complete his fourth term in office. But then what?

By Ariel Bulshtein

Israel Hayom
January 31, 2020

At some point in the 1990s, Anatoly Sobchakthe, the mayor of Saint Petersburg (dubbed the "northern capital of Russia") visited Israel. Sobchakthe was one of the most senior and influential politicians in Russia in that interim period between Soviet Communism and a new era.

But this was not a working visit. The charismatic mayor was invited to the Jewish state for a week of fun so that he would get to know it and feel inclined towards it in the future. The visit was a success, as expected, and the high-profile official enjoyed the Israeli sun and other local delights. The hard-working assistant who traveled out with him had just as much fun.

Almost three decades have passed since that visit. Sobchakthe quickly lost his political power, was accused of corruption, and died. The person who had been his assistant had a very different trajectory. This month, he visited Israel again – this time for an official visit as a president upon whose word many hang. Hopefully, the impression made on him 30 years ago remains and is remembered by Vladimir Putin. Perhaps he even chalked up further poignant experiences on his most recent visit.

While ties between countries are first and foremost established on mutual interests, personal relationships also have an impact. Those who know the Russian president and have had contact with him are unanimous in their assessment that he is positively inclined towards Israel and the Jews, which certainly should not be taken for granted for someone who rose up through the ranks of the KGB and who regards the breakup of the Soviet Union as the biggest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.

With all due respect to Israel-Russia relations, the Russian president's attention has been mostly elsewhere of late. Internationally, Putin could tick off Libya as another conflict on his list where an arrangement would be impossible without Russia, of course. Russia has had its finger in the Libyan pot for a few years and has been a strong advocate of Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar in his opposition to the "government of national accord" headed by Fayez Mustafa al-Sarraj.

Moscow has provided Haftar with weapons, advisers and possibly even mercenaries from the private armies that have been established, inspired by the Kremlin. What is new, though, is that only recently have Russia's adversaries been forced to admit that without it, there is no chance of reconciliation between the warring sides in the Libyan conflict. Tactically speaking, Russia's involvement has paid off once again, just as it did in Syria, and it is now clear that once any arrangement is reached, Putin will be the head usher. And if there is no deal? The Russians will not be too upset: They will continue to back Haftar until he takes over Libya, or whatever is left of it, through force and military power – just as happened in Syria.

While achievements on the Libyan front are important for the Russian president, the most important front for him at the moment is inside Russia. Without much real opposition at home, and without any real scrutiny from outside, Putin is carrying out a sudden change in the system of government at home, something which anywhere else would be virtually regarded as a coup. But in the case of Russia, everything can change, and the only thing that will remain constant is Putin's rule over the kingdom.

For some time now, the Russian system has been occupied by what is known as the "2024 problem." This is when Putin will complete his second consecutive term as president, and his fourth overall. The only problem is that the constitution will not allow him another one. It is, of course, possible to repeal this provision, but that would be a rather blatant step.

Like many authoritarian regimes, the Russians are concerned with appearances, and a brazen personal change to the constitution would look bad so it is best avoided. But do not be mistaken in thinking that Putin exiting the stage is an option, and so his aides are looking for creative solutions to how he can stay in power, without the title of president.

One of the options under consideration was a merger between Russia and neighboring Belarus, creating one state, enabling Putin to head the unified nation. The two countries have been drawing closer for some time, and formally they have even cut deals that could lead to a full merger.

But just like with the tango, it takes two to merge. The Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko would rather stay a "mini Putin" on his own modest lot rather than handing it to the original Putin on a silver platter. Lukashenko is playing a tricky game, at times hinting that he wants to proceed with a merger (predominantly to get economic benefits out of the Russians), and at others putting the breaks on it, and so this potential solution to the 2024 problem cannot be taken as a given.

The Kremlin has thus decided to prepare the groundwork for another solution and to ready Russia for a change in the balance of power between the branches of government in such a way that the importance of the presidency will be overshadowed by that of another branch. This way, Putin could move from president to another position, without having to give up the real controlling share in the country.

What would this position be? Prime minister, head of parliament, or perhaps as head of a new, reinforced State Council. A final decision has not yet been made apparently, and so Putin is suddenly bringing a host of legislative reforms, all of which have the shared trait of strengthening these bodies.

The State Council is the most intriguing. Up until now, it has not played a role in the balance of powers. Once the constitution is changed in the coming months, the Council will become a key player.

"President Putin has decided to appoint as head of the Council … Putin, and without any time limitation," Leonid Gozman, one of the most prominent opponents to the all-powerful leader, puts it sarcastically. But sarcasm is all that the opposition in Russia has left. It has no political power that can actually stop these changes.

The only obstacle that might upset Putin's future plans to stay in power is Russia's spluttering economy, and Putin knows it too. In order to sweeten the bitter pill, the plans for changing the system of government were presented along with a generous set of benefits. A generous grant for families from the birth of the first child, a dramatic increase in child allowance, a grant towards mortgages from the birth of the third child, and even hot meals for elementary school children. All so that the average Russian, the one who does not live in Russia and is not politically involved, will see the president as the benevolent savior who can not possibly be replaced.

Pyotr Stolypin, prime minister under the last czar, Nicholas II, is said to have remarked, "in Russia, every 10 years everything changes, and nothing changes in 200 years." Over 100 years have passed since then - and have proved him right. Russia still prefers to be led by the father of the nation, be that a czar, a president or the head of the National Council.