Erdoğan's desperate gambit in Libya
By Oded Granot
Israel Hayom
January 2, 2020
In just a short while – perhaps a matter of days – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with approval from the Turkish parliament, plans to deploy troops to Tripoli, Libya. It is an exceedingly desperate attempt by Turkey to shift the balance of power in the war-torn country in favor of one of the sides.
Turkish navy units will patrol the oil-rich North African country's coast. Almost immediately following the demise of former Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011, Libya has been mired in a bloody civil war. In Tripoli, in the country's west, the overtly Islamist government and parliament want to establish a constitution based on Shariah law. In the country's east, retired Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who fought Gaddafi back in the day, has established his own army and a secular parliament.
In an effort to seize control of Libya, both camps are using outside help. Haftar has allied himself to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates in the Persian Gulf; the government in Tripoli is allied with Turkey and Qatar. All these players, in gross violation of UN resolutions, are providing the respective sides with weapons, ammunition, training, and vast sums of money, only prolonging the suffering of the miserable Libyan people.
Putin recognized an opportunity
It stands to reason that the battle experience of Haftar's army, the larger sums of money the Saudis have given him, the close assistance he is getting from the other side of Libya's shared border with Egypt, and the drones he has received from the UAE (which have proven more effective than the ones Tripoli has received from Turkey) – have helped Haftar seize almost all of Libya in recent years.
But what has spurred the field marshal's army to the southern outskirts of Tripoli in recent months, ahead of a final push to conquer the entire city, is the military aid from Russia. Identical to Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin correctly interpreted US ambivalence and jumped on the rare opportunity to carve out a second strategic enclave, after Syria, in the Mediterranean Basin; and perhaps also advance the construction of a Russian naval port.
And precisely as he did in Syria, Putin sent more than 1,000 of his mercenaries from the "Wagner Group" to assist Haftar. These mercenaries are hardened fighters and excellent marksmen and have inflicted heavy casualties on the defenders of Tripoli.
In its hour of need, the government in Tripoli, under the leadership of Fayez al-Sarraj, turned to the Turks, asking them to send troops to help halt Haftar in his tracks. Erdoğan, ever the sly fox, quickly signed al-Sarraj to two agreements. One pertains to military and defense cooperation; the other, unprecedented in nature, pertains to the demarcation of the maritime borders between the two countries.
The maritime agreement, which demarcates the maritime border between the city of Dalaman in southwestern Turkey and the city of Derna in northeastern Libya (which, incidentally, the Tripoli government doesn't control), garnered widespread international condemnation. The deal was denounced as a violation of international law, while also sparking the anger of at least four countries in the Mediterranean Basin: Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel – because, according to Erdoğan, it prevents them from moving ahead with their joint project to build an underwater gas pipeline from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe.
A feeling of power? Just the opposite
It's very possible that Erdoğan is mistaken. Although the EastMed project is still far from fruition with many obstacles still remaining, and despite the warnings from Ankara, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was expected to depart for a leadership summit in Greece on Thursday to sign the pipeline deal with the Greek and Cypriot governments. This, in addition to the memorandum of understandings the sides already signed in 2017 after an initial feasibility survey was conducted. Israel hopes Egypt will also attend the summit.
Erdoğan recently described the alliance with Tripoli as a historic achievement, and as an evocation of the Ottoman Empire's past glory; a coming-full-circle of sorts from the day, almost 100 years ago, that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, one of the most revered commanders of the Turkish army and later the founder of modern Turkey, was dispatched to Derna to help repel the Italian invasion.
The truth, however, is that the Turkish-Libyan alliance isn't an indication of Erdoğan's power, rather the exact opposite – it is a reflection of his desire to ease his sense of isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, and his desire to buy another friend, aside from Turkish Cyprus, which is his only other ally in the sector.
In the fight for the natural gas reservoirs in the eastern Mediterranean, the Turkish tyrant finds himself pitted against a strategic coalition of old and new enemies: Greece and Cyprus, Egypt and Israel. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, who hasn't forgotten Erdoğan's support for the Muslim Brotherhood during its battle for control of Egypt, has since 2015 held joint military maneuvers with the Greeks on the island of Rhodes, just 12 miles from the Turkish coast. The Cypriots started participating in the joint drill two years ago.
And now, after failing to reshape his neighbor to the south, Syria, by deposing Bashar Assad (who the Russians saved), Erdoğan could – again due to Russian intervention – fail to rescue an Islamist government, this time in Tripoli.
With that, Russia and Turkey aren't necessarily on a collision course on Libyan soil. Firstly, because both leaders have learned to find common ground even in the midst of harsh conflict; and secondly, because similar to the Russians, Erdoğan also intends to send mercenaries to Libya instead of regular Turkish conscripts – to help cloud actual casualty figures.
Israel, at least officially, hasn't taken sides in the Libyan civil war, but it won't mourn the fall of Tripoli if Haftar takes it. His victory would unquestionably annul the agreements with Turkey and put the sultan in his place.
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Airstrike on Libyan military school kills at least 28 and leaves dozens injured after missile hits cadets lined up on parade ground
Daily Mail
January 5, 2020
At least 28 people were killed and dozens injured on Saturday in an air strike on a military school in the Libyan capital Tripoli. At the time of the strike cadets were gathered on a parade ground.
The southern part of Tripoli has seen fierce fighting since last April, when military strongman Khalifa Haftar began an offensive against the GNA.
GNA forces accused those loyal to Haftar of the strike.
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