By Tom in Lazybrook
Without going into your charges against the Democrats, Trump is in very deep trouble.
1)
The economy is bad and will likely get far worse by the election. The
2.2 Trillion of stimulus has been propping the economy up. Its all been
spent. There will be problems extending much of it due to Trumps dumb
decision to block transparency into it and GOP opposition to trickle up
measures. Any stimulus extension helps the GOP so the Dems have all the
negotiating leverage. Yet McConnell and Trump are acting like they hold
the cards. When this all runs out, all hell will break loose.
2)
Trumps messaging is awful. Its all geared towards people already in his
camp, which represent about 35% of the electorate. And targeted at 52%
of the electorate (LGBT, African Americans, Hispanics, college degreed
individuals, non-evangelicals, many women). His outreach to those groups
is of the circus variety (Kanye West) and isnt designed to actually
convince significant persons in those groups to support him, but rather
to message to his base that “see, Trump isnt racist”. Its not working.
3)
Trumps Covid response was a disaster. And remains one. And large
numbers of Republicans are blaming him for it. He blew off the response
in January and February, then tried to use shutdowns in March to attack
Democratic Governors in MI, WI, and PA by betting that people would be
more afraid of being seen as “Beta male” than of Covid. People were even
willing to forgive him when he tried to respond to Covid for a hot
minute. Thats gone now. Along with Trumps large lead with older voters.
And Trump and the GOP keep digging.
4) Trump doubled down on the
anti BLM rhetoric too, which was a political (as well as a moral) gaffe.
He then compounded it by tear gassing and flash banging Episcopal
priests on their own property and celebrated the beating up of
protesters by police. This is proving to be very bad for his standing
with older and Country Club voters (he had those voters in 2016) His
behavior outraged those opposed to him too, which has meant that the
Bernie/Green opposition wont exist in the fall for exploitation by Trump
like in 2016. Biden even told BLM that he had no intention of
‘defunding the police’ and no one on the left said anything in response
to that rebuke.
5) Trump is banking on debates to bail him out.
Biden is old and sounds like it too. But all Biden has to do is hold a
few comebacks like “I wont tell people to drink Bleach”, “Trump got
money from Saudi Arabia as hush money over the murder of a US resident”,
“Trump and his billionaire cronies got Trillions and left yall to go
bankrupt” in reserve if he feels he is losing the debate. Trump may be
perceived to ‘win’ a debate but I doubt it will be decisive.
6)
Trump is counting on a major gaffe by Biden or a manufactured one. But
people arent listening anymore. And Trump cant be bothered to stay on
message long enough to profit for any sustainable period of time from
one.
7) Trump doesnt have 4 months to turn this around…he has 2
or less. If he cannot start to claw back to a 5 percent deficit by
September, people will start abandoning him in droves. First, the appeal
of him being a winner that makes the Americans his supporters dislike
angry fails if people feel that he will lose, especially if that they
feel he will be embarrassed in the election. If people within his
administration feel that that they may have liability (especially
criminal) they will start to try to make deals, exposing scandals by the
truckload. The crisis in Texas, Arizona, and Florida with Covid will
last at least that long. And theres no one to blame there but
Republicans.
Trump is down now by 10 to 15 points. If it gets
worse, theres a huge problem. If he cant eat half of it away by
September, its very dire for him.
_____
Bidens election is not
guaranteed. The new defectors are Republican adjacent and there may be
some of a ‘coming home’ effect as Trump tries to paint the Dems as pinko
commies. There may be a Caravan, a manufactured crisis, or some other
event that might help Trump. But time is rapidly running out for him.
Right now a Trump win and a Biden 400 Electoral college vote/20% blowout are probably equally likely.
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