Saturday, July 4, 2020

'DARKNESS ON THE HORIZON IN THE YEAR OF CORONA' RESPONSE

By Tom in Lazybrook

Without going into your charges against the Democrats, Trump is in very deep trouble.

1) The economy is bad and will likely get far worse by the election. The 2.2 Trillion of stimulus has been propping the economy up. Its all been spent. There will be problems extending much of it due to Trumps dumb decision to block transparency into it and GOP opposition to trickle up measures. Any stimulus extension helps the GOP so the Dems have all the negotiating leverage. Yet McConnell and Trump are acting like they hold the cards. When this all runs out, all hell will break loose.

2) Trumps messaging is awful. Its all geared towards people already in his camp, which represent about 35% of the electorate. And targeted at 52% of the electorate (LGBT, African Americans, Hispanics, college degreed individuals, non-evangelicals, many women). His outreach to those groups is of the circus variety (Kanye West) and isnt designed to actually convince significant persons in those groups to support him, but rather to message to his base that “see, Trump isnt racist”. Its not working.

3) Trumps Covid response was a disaster. And remains one. And large numbers of Republicans are blaming him for it. He blew off the response in January and February, then tried to use shutdowns in March to attack Democratic Governors in MI, WI, and PA by betting that people would be more afraid of being seen as “Beta male” than of Covid. People were even willing to forgive him when he tried to respond to Covid for a hot minute. Thats gone now. Along with Trumps large lead with older voters. And Trump and the GOP keep digging.

4) Trump doubled down on the anti BLM rhetoric too, which was a political (as well as a moral) gaffe. He then compounded it by tear gassing and flash banging Episcopal priests on their own property and celebrated the beating up of protesters by police. This is proving to be very bad for his standing with older and Country Club voters (he had those voters in 2016) His behavior outraged those opposed to him too, which has meant that the Bernie/Green opposition wont exist in the fall for exploitation by Trump like in 2016. Biden even told BLM that he had no intention of ‘defunding the police’ and no one on the left said anything in response to that rebuke.

5) Trump is banking on debates to bail him out. Biden is old and sounds like it too. But all Biden has to do is hold a few comebacks like “I wont tell people to drink Bleach”, “Trump got money from Saudi Arabia as hush money over the murder of a US resident”, “Trump and his billionaire cronies got Trillions and left yall to go bankrupt” in reserve if he feels he is losing the debate. Trump may be perceived to ‘win’ a debate but I doubt it will be decisive.

6) Trump is counting on a major gaffe by Biden or a manufactured one. But people arent listening anymore. And Trump cant be bothered to stay on message long enough to profit for any sustainable period of time from one.

7) Trump doesnt have 4 months to turn this around…he has 2 or less. If he cannot start to claw back to a 5 percent deficit by September, people will start abandoning him in droves. First, the appeal of him being a winner that makes the Americans his supporters dislike angry fails if people feel that he will lose, especially if that they feel he will be embarrassed in the election. If people within his administration feel that that they may have liability (especially criminal) they will start to try to make deals, exposing scandals by the truckload. The crisis in Texas, Arizona, and Florida with Covid will last at least that long. And theres no one to blame there but Republicans.

Trump is down now by 10 to 15 points. If it gets worse, theres a huge problem. If he cant eat half of it away by September, its very dire for him.
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Bidens election is not guaranteed. The new defectors are Republican adjacent and there may be some of a ‘coming home’ effect as Trump tries to paint the Dems as pinko commies. There may be a Caravan, a manufactured crisis, or some other event that might help Trump. But time is rapidly running out for him.

Right now a Trump win and a Biden 400 Electoral college vote/20% blowout are probably equally likely.

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