CHINA IS TRICKING NUMBERS

What is the size of Covid-19?

Archyde
March 3, 2020

In China, official statistics on corona infected people raise questions. Many cases are apparently not counted. In Germany meanwhile there are confirmed cases in almost every federal state.

Worldwide, more and more people are infected with the corona virus. In Germany there are now cases of the virus called SARS-CoV-2 that have been detected in almost all federal states. Outside of Germany, South Korea and China continue to be hardest hit. Beijing could even have tricked the infected.

In China, the number of deaths rose by a further 31 to 2,943, the authorities said. And with 125 newly registered infections, the number of virus cases increased to 80,151. However, the true extent of the epidemic in China is unclear because the counting has been changed several times. This has a noticeable impact on official statistics.

As the Chinese magazine “Caixin” reported, for example, people who have been shown to be infected but do not show any symptoms of the disease can no longer be counted as newly confirmed infections since the beginning of February, but can be listed elsewhere. However, such people can also be contagious.

Clinical diagnoses have also been excluded. Since the DNA tests are often incorrect, the doctor only determines the infection based on the symptoms. The increase has decreased significantly since the new counting method. According to experts, the changes can also have an impact on statistical surveys such as the mortality rate. “It shows that it could be more common and more difficult to contain than we think, which is perhaps the most important component at this point,” “Caixin” quoted Michael Mina of the Harvard School of Public Health.

Infected in almost all federal states

In the meantime, infections with the new corona virus have been detected in almost all federal states in Germany. In total, the number of infections recorded rose to around 170. With more than 90 cases, North Rhine-Westphalia has by far the most registered infections. There have only been no reports from Saarland, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt.

Cases from Brandenburg (1), Thuringia (1) and Saxony (1) were reported for the first time on Monday. In Berlin, where the first case became known on Sunday evening, two other infections were added. As a teacher is among the infected, a public school in the capital is now closed.

SPD politician Karl Lauterbach: “If we got a major epidemic, we would most likely have to cancel planned operations.” (Source: imago images)

Health expert Karl Lauterbach (SPD) fears nursing shortages in German clinics in the event of a major epidemic. “Of course we have bottlenecks. The most important of these is the small number of nurses, especially those who can work in intensive care medicine,” said Lauterbach of the “Passauer Neue Presse”.

“If we got a major epidemic, which is very possible, we would most likely have to cancel operations that could be planned and then split the hospitals into those that treat corona and those that don’t,” he added. For Lauterbach, however, these are not current problems. “At the moment, I think we are doing well.”

Large clinics such as the Berlin Charité have already prepared for a major epidemic. When the number of infections rises sharply, there is basically the possibility of postponing planned interventions in order to create more bed capacity in the short term, it said. The move could also involve additional staff to care for Covid-19 patients. The nine state-owned Berlin Vivantes clinics also claim to have around 1,860 isolatable rooms. Berlin is the largest city in Germany with 3.7 million inhabitants.

But not every infected person falls ill too. The vast majority of those affected have cold symptoms or no symptoms at all. According to current global knowledge, up to 15 percent of those affected develop more severe disease courses. Often among them are old people and patients with previous illnesses. Isolation of those affected and the search for contact persons is done so that the spread of the virus slows down as much as possible. This should preserve as much capacity as possible in the health system.

Outside of China, where the virus started, South Korea is hardest hit. Health authorities reported 600 newly detected infections. The total number reached 4,812. The number of deaths associated with the new corona virus rose from 2 to 28. Again, the majority of cases were recorded in the southeastern city of Daegu and the surrounding region. The largest cluster is among followers of the Christian sect Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which has connections to China.